Analysts: Tariffs Cause Chaos in Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-orders

The rollercoaster of news for U.S. gamers this week has been nothing short of wild. It kicked off with the exciting full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and lineup of games. However, the excitement quickly turned to dismay when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The rollercoaster took another unexpected turn this morning when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden, sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry in previous articles. But the burning question on everyone's mind right now is: what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with such questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they often provide a consensus view grounded in evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week, but this time, something unprecedented happened: every analyst I spoke to was stumped. They offered guesses on whether Nintendo would raise the price, but each response was heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaos. This situation is unprecedented, unfolding rapidly, and no one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.

With this remarkable disclaimer in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to did say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts I spoke to were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after their announcement. However, the delay changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and then announce price hikes, not only for the system but also for games and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he stated. He also questioned Nintendo's timing, suggesting they should have waited for the U.S. to resolve their tariffs before setting prices.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the unpredictability of the situation but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses reliant on international supply chains to reevaluate their pricing. "Some territories and regions globally have historically been subject to higher pricing than other parts of the world when it comes to video games. The US could certainly be joining that group because of these tariffs," he said.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted an increase in hardware prices but suggested that software might be less affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices," he explained.

Holding the Line

On the other hand, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point. He suggests that the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already factored into the Switch 2's pricing and that Nintendo has restructured its supply chain to mitigate such risks. "While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further," he said.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. He suggested that the pricing might stay as announced until 2026 but could be adjusted if the tariffs remain in place. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch," he noted.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets as a way to encourage digital purchases. "Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs," he said.

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He noted that some manufacturers, including Nintendo, have shifted production to non-tariff-impacted markets, but the logistics of completely relocating supply chains are daunting. "We are living in...there's no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," he remarked, highlighting the negative impact on consumers and the economy. He criticized the tariffs for contradicting core economic principles and for being detrimental to the U.S. economy and gamers.

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