Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial projections and necessitated air-freighting of consoles to meet demand. The anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 is palpable, frequently trending on social media. However, Piscatella cautions that this online buzz doesn't guarantee equivalent sales success.

Several critical factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including its launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, is speculated to maximize sales momentum.

Piscatella's analysis suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs), hinting at potential supply constraints mirroring the original Switch's launch. However, the extent of Nintendo's proactive manufacturing preparations remains unclear. The company might have learned from past shortages and implemented robust stockpiling strategies.

While optimistic about the Switch 2's sales potential, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its position as the leading console in the US market. The highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025 could significantly boost PS5 sales, potentially overshadowing the Switch 2's performance, despite the considerable hype surrounding Nintendo's upcoming console. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on a compelling hardware offering and a strong initial game lineup.

Key Takeaways:

• Sales Projection: 4.3 million Switch 2 units in the US in 2025 (assuming a first-half launch).
• Market Share: Projected to account for approximately one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs).
• Key Success Factors: Launch timing, hardware quality, and game lineup.
• Competition: PlayStation 5 expected to remain the top-selling console in the US, potentially boosted by Grand Theft Auto 6.